The Macro Playbook: How Top Hedge Funds Are Positioned for 2025

Global macro hedge funds — which take directional positions in currencies, interest rates, equities, and commodities — have had a mixed few years. After the banner 2022 performance of trend-followers and discretionary macro giants, 2023 and 2024 saw compression as markets moved in unexpected ways. 2025 is shaping up to be more favorable for macro as divergence between global central bank policies widens.

Common themes from fund letters and regulatory disclosures: Long gold remains a consensus positioning given geopolitical fragmentation and central bank accumulation (particularly from China, India, and Turkey). Short commercial real estate remains in play as refinancing walls hit office and multifamily sectors. Long India equities reflects demographic and policy tailwinds. Currency pairs involving the Japanese yen — after the BOJ's historic tightening pivot — are attracting heavy interest. Long commodities tied to the energy transition (copper, lithium, uranium) represent a consensus structural trade.